India Covid deaths weekly projection – 26 Jul 2020 update

Every week (since May this year), I look at the existing trend of reported cases and deaths for India. Based on that, I run few scenarios to forecast two things:

  1. when will we start seeing avg 1,000 per day reported deaths and
  2. by when would we cross 1 lakh total reported Covid deaths

So what are the latest death figures that we have?

As you can note from above:

  1. this week (19-25 Jul) on an avg. 720+ people died per day
  2. as of yesterday, total death count is 31k+

The problem with projecting the future Avg. Daily Deaths based on just this information is that the weekly growth rate of Avg Daily Deaths is pretty erratic – as you can see below.

So to project deaths, I look at two things:

  • X% – at what rate does weekly total positive cases grow (it is not as erratic – you will see below)
  • Y% – what percentage of total avg weekly cases from past two weeks die in a given week

Alright, let’s look at X from past few weeks. As you see below, it has typically hovered between 20 to 30 percent (though this week – 19-25 Jul – it really shot up).

There were almost 3 lakh new cases reported this week (19-25 Jul) which is 37% higher than 2.1 lakh reported the week before (12-18 Jul).

For future projection, I expect X to be in the range of 20 to 30%.

Now let’s come to Y.

As you see above, death %age used to hover around 3% till mid June but has been more or less around 2% since many weeks now. It looks like it could drop even more.

For projections, I am going with a range of 1.7% to 2%

My three scenarios are:

  1. X=25%, Y=2% (baseline)
  2. X=20%, Y=1.7% (better – as in slower spread, lesser deaths)
  3. X=30%, Y-2% (worse – as in faster growth, more deaths)

In about a week or two, we will start seeing 1,000 avg daily deaths, which could touch 2,000 in Aug itself.

As a context, US already reached the 1,000 daily deaths figure this week (source).

Also, at this rate, we will have 1 lakh reported deaths by early September.

That’s it for this post. I’ll get back with updated projections next Sunday (02 Aug). Stay safe.

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